Why lockdowns are the wrong policy

Status
Not open for further replies.

Aqua Puttana

Poly - Thread Finder
... and then he continues his extrapolations to come up with forecasting 2.2 million deaths in the US. :thumbdown:

--dick
I agree that lately Dr. John Campbell sometimes strays from his history of just working with the data that he presents, to injecting his personal slant. I included his video for the UK data on CFR that he included in the earlier minutes of his video. My point was that this Covid-19 disease may have a lower CFR than the 1918 H1N1 Spanish Flu pandemic. Much of that can probably be attributed to our modern medicine and science.

But some simple numbers show that his prediction for the USA deaths might be possible.

Assume the USA population as approx. 330,000,000 (Dr. Campbell used 326,000,000.)
Assume 70% needed for herd immunity = 231,000,000 Covid-19 cases.

Will the CFR settle in at 2% or 1%?

Using 231,000,000 USA residents infected (70%).
CFR 2% = 4,620,000
CFR 1% = 2,310,000
CFR 0.5% = 1,155,000

Of course the simple calculation for 70% herd immunity isn't accurate. The stats will change as the population approaches 70% herd immunity. It isn't on/off like a switch. A lesser percentage than 70% infections may work for herd immunity to take hold earlier on.

Anyway, using the UK data for the Covid-19 CFR to date, and ignoring improved medical treatments, or a timely successful vaccine roll out, a million plus Covid-19 deaths in the USA vs numbers in the 100,000's range is not out of the question. How the disease progresses in the USA will affect those numbers.

I'm not a medical person or statistician.

:2cents: vic
 

ECU

Well-known member
CFR 0.01% = 23,100
Total deaths 2020 to date compared to 2019 is +25,000.
Numbers are just bullshit when you count non cases.
 

autostaretx

Erratic Member
I agree with Campbell's method of calculation ... it (as Vic wrote) is based upon the 70% infected "target".
The only thing that will prevent it from being an accurate assessment is vaccine development and/or (far) improved treatment protocols.
Remdesivir, etc will improve survival, but not prevent infection.

CovidTreat.jpg
(from an article in 27 March 2020 Science)

--dick
 

elemental

Wherever you go, there you are.
Of course the simple calculation for 70% herd immunity isn't accurate. The stats will change as the population approaches 70% herd immunity. It isn't on/off like a switch. A lesser percentage than 70% infections may work for herd immunity to take hold earlier on.
Some COVID spread analyses have suggested a reasonable level of herd immunity at levels between 40% and 50%; I'm no expert either.
 

CJPJ

2008 3500 170"ext. 3.0 V6 OM642.993
MSNBC reporting over and over that no one was wearing masks in Sturgis during the bike rally. Again, fake news..
image.png
 

Aqua Puttana

Poly - Thread Finder
MSNBC reporting over and over that no one was wearing masks in Sturgis during the bike rally. Again, fake news..
...
Appears quite healthy to me.

It will be interesting to see if there is ever any documented spikes created by the Sturgis experience. Time may tell, depending upon which network and expert that you believe.

There was a bunch of predictions of uncontrolled spikes from the various mass protests that have been held in large cities. I haven't seen any data that shows the protests caused a large increase everywhere that protests were held. Some of the protests in Michigan that were going to cause doom were pre George Floyd.

Back to Sweden.


It doesn't appear to me that they are out of control.

SwedenJuly2020.jpg

Some would point to the early higher deaths per population. That was mostly based in elder care homes. I could show the same for New York State and New Jersey with supporting data.

The warnings from many experts and politicians were that Sweden would spiral out of control. It will be interesting to see if Sweden avoids the dreaded 2nd wave that is now the battle cry.

It's really still too early. Time will tell.

vic
 
Last edited:

ECU

Well-known member
NY changed their death count to remove some of the lies.
 

Aqua Puttana

Poly - Thread Finder
NY changed their death count to remove some of the lies.
I saw that too. The overall deaths per population hasn't changed though. Being able to track back to geriatric care facilities has been made more difficult.

Some say that NYS has manipulated the numbers of geriatric care deaths. One claim is that if someone was transported from a care facility to the hospital for Covid-19, then subsequently died, the death was listed as a hospital death even though they contracted the disease in the care facility.

Figures don't lie, but liars figure.

Covid19StateDeathPopRate.jpg

Sweden is approx. 57 per 100,000

vic
 
Last edited:

Aqua Puttana

Poly - Thread Finder
It may be time to adjust some of the previous lockdown boiler plate triggers set by Gov. Cuomo and some other leaders. Predictions were that protests would cause great spikes. Did that happen? I haven't seen out of control numbers for Minneapolis, Seattle, Portland, or other cities where protest has been common.

It is a harsh reality, but flatten the curve was based upon hospitals becoming overwhelmed which could result in unnecessary deaths. It wasn't "Nobody gets the virus. Nobody dies.".

This is preliminary information. Time will... might... tell.


:2cents: vic
 

Bobnoxious

Note to self; stay in der DZ.
I remain convinced the CHINESE Virus is a commie perpetrated hoax meant to instil fear and anxiety among voters and blame Trump.
 
G

Gsand31415

Guest

Total deaths per day in Sweden dropped to the multi-year average in early July and have stayed there (or below!) since. In a population a little over 10 million, they are now averaging less than one COVID death per day.

download.png
 

rollerbearing

Well-known member

Total deaths per day in Sweden dropped to the multi-year average in early July and have stayed there (or below!) since. In a population a little over 10 million, they are now averaging less than one COVID death per day.

View attachment 153121
Seems to pretty clearly indicate their "excess deaths" and those deaths seem to correspond well to deaths from covid.

Accumulated deaths due to covid (for a country of population 10M) was aboutish 5000.

US population 30 times greater. Just the simplest "back of the envelop" estimation for the US then would be

30 X 5,000 = 150,000

Granted that number involves huge simplifications and assumptions, but it does throw some of the low-ball US death by covid numbers into question.
 
Last edited:

ECU

Well-known member
the entire breakdown is on the CDC website. Total death by state by week in excel format.
 

flman

Okay wait for it....... Red Herring cop out!

Aqua Puttana

Poly - Thread Finder
Some interesting comments about statistics and government policies is around the 4:30 mark.


vic
 

Kajtek1

2015 long/tall limo RV 2.1l
Late to the topic and am not going to read 16 pages, but in case it wasn't published here yet, Las Vegas has wall mural of Goodman's
He was a major years ago, she is LV major today and back in May she pushed for reopening.
Some citizens updated the mural with fabric masks.
After reopening Covid cases in Nevada went 10-fold up.

Goodman MURAL-MAY18-2020-003c.jpg
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top Bottom