Why lockdowns are the wrong policy

[Aqua Puttana]

Why lockdowns are the wrong policy - Swedish expert Prof. Johan Giesecke

I feel this is worth viewing.

One of the biggest problems that I have with locking down the economy is the problems associated with how to get it going again.

Those thoughts prompted me to start the thread When to go back? What to go back to? on April 6.

When to go back? What to go back to?

Where will this experiment take us? From another thread. Part of the reason China was able to stop the spread, was that they isolated everyone who tested positive outside there homes (they had facilities/camps for them if they weren't in need of care). They also quarantined those who were...

sprinter-source.com

Prof. Giesecke mentions how to get the economy going again as one of the problems that he sees.

Our NY Gov. Cuomo is completely focused on the case numbers and deaths. He has already stated that he will reopen and watch the numbers. If the numbers go up, he will close down again. Of course the numbers will go up when the tight restrictions are relaxed. Most all of the experts predict that as happening. In my mind it is inevitable. So eventually Cuomo relaxes things... the numbers go up, he closes it down again... lather, rinse, repeat. The economy will never get going until there is a vaccine or the economy collapses completely. How long can the unemployed and small businesses with no income hold on? He also proposes 25% occupancy in restaurants. Restaurants can't make a living at 25% occupancy. It just doesn't work that way. They won't be able to afford to open.

The government can keep printing money. History shows that isn't a good economic policy.

As I sit here my wife is watching the morning programs. They pound the fact that cases and deaths are going to go up as restrictions are eased. Of course it will. We have no vaccine. We can't stop the numbers going up. We can slow the increase down, but that doesn't stop them. Sorry to sound callous, but it is a reality.

Those in the risk category need to wash their hands, maintain physical distancing, and keep away from infection as best they can. That is a personal responsibility. The government can't do that for you.

vic

 

[Bobnoxious]

Stay home, stay alive!!!

 

[Bobnoxious]

One could only wonder the mess we'd be in if Hillary was Prez.

 

[flman]

Stay home, stay alive!!!

Its a free country, you can do that. OTOH, maybe not, because I cant exercise my choice?

 

[rollerbearing]

Well stated Vic. And liked how you didn't trivialize and emphatically stated that yes, people are going to die.

Agree that this is something that we are going to need to learn to live with and we cannot sit and starve in a sieged city. It is also apparent that it is a moving target and what worked "then" may not work "now". And what worked "here" may not work "there". So we will have to be adapting our response as needed.

New strains emerge:

Scientists say a now-dominant strain of the coronavirus could be more contagious than original

A mutation in the novel coronavirus has led to a new strain viewed as more contagious than the virus that emerged from China, according to a new study.

www.latimes.com

Spike mutation pipeline reveals the emergence of a more transmissible form of SARS-CoV-2

We have developed an analysis pipeline to facilitate real-time mutation tracking in SARS-CoV-2, focusing initially on the Spike (S) protein because it mediates infection of human cells and is the target of most vaccine strategies and antibody-based therapeutics. To date we have identified...

www.biorxiv.org

******Added******** And sometimes it goes the other way (weakening):

New coronavirus mutation mirrors changes of weakening 2003 SARS virus

A new coronavirus mutation discovered by Arizona researchers mirrors a change that occurred as the 2003 SARS virus began to weaken, the researchers announced. Lead study author Dr. Efrem Lim, an as…

nypost.com

This quote from the LA Times article

“This is hard news,” wrote Korber, “but please don’t only be disheartened by it..........Please be encouraged by knowing the global scientific community is on this, and we are cooperating with each other in ways I have never seen … in my 30 years as a scientist.”

I think that is what is going to be required - cooperation. It might be that the vulnerable may not eat in a restaurant or go to a movie. These are luxuries and certainly don't work with social distancing. Those who want to go should be allowed to go. But cooperation and respect could make it safer for the vulnerable to buy food and other non-luxuries. Perhaps the easiest is a fixed shopping hour one or two days a week where everyone cooperates and wears a mask. Let them do curbside pick up from the public library. Get them effective masks when they become available. Etc. There are a lot of things that, with cooperation, will go a long way to open things up without leaving them to fend alone against something that is more than "just the flu."

 

[ECU]

Knowledge.
If you are of a concerned group, stay home.
Should the whole world be closed so that bubble boy can come outside?
I said when this started that there would be people who will live in fear the rest of their lives and stay home forever.
They will get SS disability payments and section 8 housing. Their health issues from obesity will be treated free by doctors at our expense.
They will never go out, but they will be safe.

Similar to those that keep their "Pet" in a box all the time.

 

[flman]

I can't wait until this turns into a big nothing burger, no worse than the flu. There will be a run on crow meat and bread. Too bad hospitals are calling every death C19 related, so that they can get the $34000 per each death reported as C19. The data we are being fed is as phony as China's.

 

[VanGoSki]

The purpose of the lockdown is to flatten the curve. That way we can get a handle on how to test for it, treat it, ramp up PPE availability, venilators, vaccines, etc. Once those are in place then we can go back to work and treat it like any other disease. But right now we have no defenses whatsoever.

 

[flman]

The purpose of the lockdown is to flatten the curve. That way we can get a handle on how to test for it, treat it, ramp up PPE availability, venilators, vaccines, etc. Once those are in place then we can go back to work and treat it like any other disease. But right now we have no defenses whatsoever.

What curve? More like a pimple. Nurses and doctors are out of work, the hospitals are empty. We overreacted, it would only take the governors a couple of minutes to admit this, and open things back up. How come prisons and nursing homes did not have the 100s of thousands of deaths that were predicted? They were not social distancing. More like they have a better herd immunity than us now.

 

[Mike DZ]

1. This is a novel corona virus - novel means we don't know specifically how it will progress - we do have good knowledge of epidemiology, but we don't have good knowledge of factors you have to plug into the models. And its not just about population density and how good the virus reproduces - geography and pattern of life makes a difference. Anyone who states that they are SURE x or y will happen is talking through their fourth point of contact.
2. Hospitalization and death stats indicate that if you go to a hospital you have about a 30% chance of death. Don't quibble about probable case stats, they are about 10% of the cases - so 27% is about 30%.
3. One problem is we are managing this at the state level - most states are too large of a geographic area to usefully manage health care responses, but are still too powerless to take measures like closing state borders. My State has counties with zero cases and some with 1,000s of cases.
4. However, looking at case numbers is not a very useful way of looking at things - looking a cases per capita or per 100,000 provides a better view as to what is going on. When I look at it that way, my county is about #3 in the state and accelerating, because it took a while to get into our meat packing plants. I go to the same grocery store etc as the families at work at those plants. Basically, our part of the pandemic just started about a week ago and is rapidly getting worse.
5. Finally, for those that are willing to lift restrictions - specifically how many deaths are ok? As a military planner in an earlier chapter in my life, we adjudicated courses of action using various factors, one of which was the cost in treasure and lives. We didn't shrink from recommending a course of action if the cost was actually worth achieving the objective, but we were we very deliberate in asking the hard question - how many deaths?

 

[Aqua Puttana]

...
5. Finally, for those that are willing to lift restrictions - specifically how many deaths are ok? As a military planner, we adjudicated courses of action using various factors, one of which was the cost in treasure and lives. We didn't shrink from recommending a course of action if the cost was actually worth achieving the objective, but we were we very deliberate in asking the hard question - how many deaths?

Can't answer that. As you said, this is a novel corona virus so nobody has any hard data. No economy has ever been locked down like this. We have no data for that either.

We flatten the curve, we save lives because the hospitals aren't overwhelmed. But that doesn't avoid all Covid-19 deaths. The area under the curve doesn't go away. It avoids some death. As the Swedish Prof said about Sweden's action vs the UK, ask me one year from now.

The politicians constantly harp about the estimated deaths that are directly related to the Covid-19 disease proper. What about the indirect casualties which will result from a long period of lock down and financial ruin? That can include increased domestic violence, increased drug and alcohol abuse, increased child molestation, increased psychological stresses, failing businesses, increased robberies/crime, suicides, etc. triggered by the continued failing economy. Those casualties will continue on for many, many years past the virus and this lock down experiment which is crippling the economy and the population. I don't have the answers for those eventual numbers. Does anyone?

What about increased unrest in the general public? What about summer weather bringing more likelihood of violence and riots? Few riots happen over winter. What other completely unexpected negative results/effects are waiting in the wings from this lock down? I don't have the answers.

I'm not saying that everything should all of a sudden just be let go to see who survives. Now that the economy has been halted and people have been scared to death we can't just open the flood gates. The lock down needs to be phased out and get people back to working and some semblance of normality. The people need hope. Right now all they are being fed is death and more death. To top that that off good old Gov. Cuomo is shirking the responsibility for any deaths by constantly telling people if the curve goes back up it is because the citizens haven't followed the rules well enough. That is just B.S. More people will die. It will not be because we didn't wear our masks and properly follow all of the rules. It will happen because this is a nasty virus pandemic and that's what happens with a disease.

This is not a simple "flatten the curve" situation. There are some difficult decisions that will need to be made. I don't have the answers, but I'm also not willing to just hide under "flatten the curve", "NY Pause", "New Normal" or other slogans that try to oversimplify this very complex situation.

In my mind these are critical times. We need real leadership from our government. Cooperation, or at least less interference from the 24 hour news media would help. I'm not optimistic.

vic

 

[flman]

1. This is a novel corona virus - novel means we don't know specifically how it will progress - we do have good knowledge of epidemiology, but we don't have good knowledge of factors you have to plug into the models. And its not just about population density and how good the virus reproduces - geography and pattern of life makes a difference. Anyone who states that they are SURE x or y will happen is talking through their fourth point of contact.
2. Hospitalization and death stats indicate that if you go to a hospital you have about a 30% chance of death. Don't quibble about probable case stats, they are about 10% of the cases - so 27% is about 30%.
3. One problem is we are managing this at the state level - most states are too large of a geographic area to usefully manage health care responses, but are still too powerless to take measures like closing state borders. My State has counties with zero cases and some with 1,000s of cases.
4. However, looking at case numbers is not a very useful way of looking at things - looking a cases per capita or per 100,000 provides a better view as to what is going on. When I look at it that way, my county is about #3 in the state and accelerating, because it took a while to get into our meat packing plants. I go to the same grocery store etc as the families at work at those plants. Basically, our part of the pandemic just started about a week ago and is rapidly getting worse.
5. Finally, for those that are willing to lift restrictions - specifically how many deaths are ok? As a military planner, we adjudicated courses of action using various factors, one of which was the cost in treasure and lives. We didn't shrink from recommending a course of action if the cost was actually worth achieving the objective, but we were we very deliberate in asking the hard question - how many deaths?

1 This is America, if you want to stay and hide inside of your house, you do it. All I see is stores that have bigger crowds of people then ever, in the meantime businesses across the street are struggling. It is all BS, we have already proven with real "Life" data, that people being together is not causing any problem. How many stores have you walked into that were empty?
2 You may die if you don't go to the hospital as well, but there is no proof that social distancing, and collapsing the economy is going to help anyone. The death number is still not all that high compared to the seasonal flu, and a lot lower than the 1.2 Million deaths that are caused by cancer and heart disease alone. Any death in a cash strapped hospital is an easy guaranteed $34K, as long as it is label C19. Who is going to check?
3 Agreed the shut down is not a one size fits all, if it was even warranted to begin with?
4 Not as bad as Italy or France. Besides spring is here, and it is going to putter out soon.
5 If you are a military planner, you are in full retreat. I have been on the front lines since day one, exposed to 100s of people, I am probably already immune, as I do not wear a mask when I can get away with it or wash and sanitize my hands any more than normal. Life is normal for me, except for the few places I have to put on my unsanitized mask.

And to add, most of the restaurants that are service, are run by a staff that is not wearing masks, or gloves, and serving food the the general public, same thing is happening everywhere. Do you think people are going to wear a mask for 8 to 12 hours a day?

 

[rollerbearing]

Well, flman, being the boots on the ground probably has a pretty good picture.

However, other data (and let's not auto-knee-jerk call it fake news - that is a weak argument), indicates that there MAY be consumer reluctance. For the economy to approach normalcy it MAY be necessary to address this reluctance.

How best to do that?

https://context-cdn.washingtonpost.com/notes/prod/default/documents/8b7e272d-7810-4c89-94dd-17a171790932/note/a144011d-70a1-4768-8849-218ecc98f61c.#page=1

 

[Aqua Puttana]

...

However, other data (and let's not auto-knee-jerk call it fake news - that is a weak argument), indicates that there MAY be consumer reluctance. For the economy to approach normalcy it MAY be necessary to address this reluctance.

How best to do that?

https://context-cdn.washingtonpost.com/notes/prod/default/documents/8b7e272d-7810-4c89-94dd-17a171790932/note/a144011d-70a1-4768-8849-218ecc98f61c.#page=1

I can't answer your question as to how best to do that.

The poll questions were a bit ... for lack of a better word ... leading.

Eg. - Open gun shops.
I own and collect a few mostly antique firearms. Even I would not put a high priority on opening gun shops. Who needs that right away?

That and who the heck replies to these polls anyway? Polls are what made Hillary Clinton and the dems think that they had the 2016 election locked up. Those polls were off by a bit.

I do appreciate the supplied data though. I wish more people would include that.

Added:
Return to any type of normalcy is a Catch 22 in a way. If the businesses aren't allowed to open, then how will the reluctant have a chance to even try?

vic

 

[rollerbearing]

I agree that it was leading - the gun shop question was hardly necessary. Don't know if that was somehow a dog whistle or litmus test for the participants and probably did tweek responses somewhat.

If truthful in their response (or not) as to their affiliation - there was a fairly even mix of dem/rep responders. I am surprised that that many considered themselves independent. If that is the true voter mix it MIGHT help indicate the sampling is decent.

Who answers these? - I never have.

Interesting that not many at all thought theaters should be open. I wonder if this is more than just the crowd? Maybe ease of replacement (streaming, discs). Maybe people get more nervous in the dark. Does not portend well for theaters - who already seemed to be struggling in our area.

Absolutely a Catch 22. I think you hit it pretty well - respect not fear. How to instill that? Education, gained experience, and honesty come to mind.

 

[Bobnoxious]

Drive In theatres may return???

 

[flman]

Well, flman, being the boots on the ground probably has a pretty good picture.

However, other data (and let's not auto-knee-jerk call it fake news - that is a weak argument), indicates that there MAY be consumer reluctance. For the economy to approach normalcy it MAY be necessary to address this reluctance.

How best to do that?

https://context-cdn.washingtonpost.com/notes/prod/default/documents/8b7e272d-7810-4c89-94dd-17a171790932/note/a144011d-70a1-4768-8849-218ecc98f61c.#page=1

Did not look at it. For one it's fake news, and I can tell you are salivating over economic doom. Be careful, you just might get what you wish for. A Venezuela type economy. Why would anyone root against the USA, unless you don't live here? Name any country in history that stood with a nation divided and 40% of them rooting for failure. You are awful smug, and don't know just how bad of a future you are looking for.

The one thing I can say for this forum, there are so many bright members, but at same time, so stupid. And no I am not exempt, I do stupid things too, but I never hope for failure, of mine or my neighbors way of life. I am glad I was not raised to be a selfish prick.

 

[rollerbearing]

Did not look at it. For one it's fake news, and I can tell you are salivating over economic doom. Be careful, you just might get what you wish for. A Venezuela type economy. Why would anyone root against the USA, unless you don't live here? Name any country in history that stood with a nation divided and 40% of them rooting for failure. You are awful smug, and don't know just how bad of a future you are looking for.

The one thing I can say for this forum, there are so many bright members, but at same time, so stupid. And no I am not exempt, I do stupid things too, but I never hope for failure, of mine or my neighbors way of life. I am glad I was not raised to be a selfish prick.

Wow. That really put your knickers in a twist for having not read it.

 

[ECU]

Policy and Punditry Need to Adapt to New Virus Data | RealClearPolitics

When we began our foray into quarantine seven weeks ago, there was a unifying and eminently sensible rationale behind it: Bend the curve. The idea was this: If allowed to go unchecked, COVID-19...

www.realclearpolitics.com

 

[Aqua Puttana]

Did not look at it.
...

That is kinda disappointing. Why would you dismiss off hand something which might expand your view of what is being discussed.

For one it's fake news, ...

Having not even looked at it, how can you say that?

I really don't know how to respond. It really dilutes all of the "fake news" claims when the information provided isn't even given the consideration of being reviewed at a simple basic level.

Carry on.

vic