When to go back? What to go back to?

G

Gsand31415

Guest
The beauty of herd immunity is that it selects for less lethal virus variants over time. More lethal variants disappear because the host is likely to die before the virus "finds" a susceptible individual to be transmitted to. Less lethal variants have more opportunity to find someone susceptible.
Over time, the less lethal variants predominate, and the more lethal can disappear.
They can come back, though.
 

tinman

Well-known member
The beauty of herd immunity is that it selects for less lethal virus variants over time. More lethal variants disappear because the host is likely to die before the virus "finds" a susceptible individual to be transmitted to. Less lethal variants have more opportunity to find someone susceptible.
Over time, the less lethal variants predominate, and the more lethal can disappear.
They can come back, though.
The reality of that process is not particularly beautiful. We are dealing with a set of medical, social, and economic events that for all practical purposes are unprecedented. There is historical data from the 1918 Flu, and to the extent that we are willing and able to learn from history there are some lessons there, but essentially we are winging it with the help of some pretty good science. Pretty good, like anything not perfect, and yes, it will change from day to day. Public policy makers are in the main doing their best with what they've got, and we will know only in retrospect how right or wrong they were. Some of that retrospective will be soon, most will not. The only reference points we have on the medical side in the meantime are whatever good data is generated from places that were hit earlier. On the economic front, the same applies. We have not been here before. It is inevitably hard for us to get our heads around something so much vaster that anything in our collective experience, but since it is so different it is pretty safe to say that we will not be returning to November 2019 any time soon. Most of what we are talking about on this thread, whether it's herd immunity, treatment drugs, vaccine timelines or effectiveness, infection rates, virus mutation, etc.ad infinitum, is pure speculation, and we should be careful with it. Like everyone, people in my area are getting fatigued. The shutdown, such as it is, is being slowly relaxed. In my particular region, our known infection rate is low and we haven't had major outbreaks, but in places nearby, in specific environments, they are still happening, indicating that we are vulnerable. Without a good level of individual and collective caution, things could still go sideways pretty quickly, and given that we are a long, long way from understanding all the variables we would be foolish to let that happen. Maybe tomorrow the sun will rise and it will all go away. I wouldn't bet on it. Difficult as it is, patience and caution. Help out whoever you can who is in tougher circumstances. Ask for help if you need it.
 

flman

Okay wait for it....... Red Herring cop out!
It is not that bad, it was a big overreaction to another computer model that was wrong. And no, I do not believe the reported death numbers of this little virus are accurate. There is an agenda at play here as well.

 
Last edited:

rollerbearing

Well-known member
I sense it coming but I cannot avoid it.
My boat strikes something.
At first sounds of silence, waves.
Nothing has happened;
Or perhaps everything has happened
And I am sitting in my new life.

Rumi
 

Aqua Puttana

Poly - Thread Finder
Last edited:

Top Bottom