When to go back? What to go back to?

ECU

Well-known member
Trump said that yesterday. It is up to your governor.
 

Aqua Puttana

Poly - Thread Finder
Trump said that yesterday. It is up to your governor.
Yes.

Those of us in New York State are in an interesting situation. NY State policies generally lean to toward the needs of the NYC areas. There is a huge concentration of votes in that area. It pays politically for the NYS governors to keep the population there happy. Much of NYS is not like the NYC area, but we are under the same controls good, bad, or indifferent.

Time will tell.

:2cents: vic
 

elemental

Wherever you go, there you are.
According to this study, many of us may have already had it. So why all the fear mongering, time to open back up.

https://ktla.com/news/california/st...han-testing-identified-in-santa-clara-county/
The article reads (in part): "The preliminary study, conducted by researchers at Stanford University, estimates that between 2.5% and 4.2% of Santa Clara County residents had antibodies to the new coronavirus in their blood by early April. Antibodies are an indication that a person’s immune system has responded to a past infection."

Although the suspected actual infected rates are far in excess of the "confirmed case" counts, I don't think a 2.5% to 4.2% coverage rate (people with antibodies due to infection or a vaccine) is enough to convince epidemiologists that enough of the population is no longer at risk to make things wide open. Testing capabilities appear to be what we are waiting for, with the number 500,000/day being claimed as a goal that will allow enough monitoring to allow things to open up.
 

elemental

Wherever you go, there you are.
Yes.

Those of us in New York State are in an interesting situation. NY State policies generally lean to toward the needs of the NYC areas. There is a huge concentration of votes in that area. It pays politically for the NYS governors to keep the population there happy. Much of NYS is not like the NYC area, but we are under the same controls good, bad, or indifferent.
Washington (state) is the same way; the Seattle metro area has significant say in statewide policies. This has been true with the COVID-19 policies as much as with anything else. The early outbreak in King County (Seattle metro area) drove statewide physical isolation requirements despite very rural counties (eastern WA) with practically no COVID-19 cases.
 

Aqua Puttana

Poly - Thread Finder
...

Although the suspected actual infected rates are far in excess of the "confirmed case" counts, I don't think a 2.5% to 4.2% coverage rate (people with antibodies due to infection or a vaccine) is enough to convince epidemiologists that enough of the population is no longer at risk to make things wide open. Testing capabilities appear to be what we are waiting for, with the number 500,000/day being claimed as a goal that will allow enough monitoring to allow things to open up.
I wouldn't disagree.

My information is that we need 60 - 70% of the population to become immune for Herd Immunity to kick in (not so many people spreading the disease). Assuming we can develop anti-bodies, that percentage range is achieved by enough people surviving infection, or an effective vaccine is administered to enough of the population.

The Catch 22 is that it takes longer to achieve Herd Immunity if people are distanced. The percentage of people needing immunity doesn't change. The time to achieve that percentage can extend. The numbers associated with the results of infection (those needing a hospital, those needing ICU, sometimes death) cannot be completely avoided. It becomes somewhat of a race to a vaccine. Can we effectively vaccinate a substantial number of the population sooner than achieving natural herd immunity? If a vaccine is 12 - 18 months in the future that race becomes more difficult to win. Is relaxing restrictions going to achieve Herd Immunity sooner? Will it result in fewer deaths overall? I don't know the answers.

Even if a Herd Immunity or a vaccine is totally effective, the disease will still be out there. Without effective treatments, the at risk people with comorbidity issues may still die if infected.

To me issues like those are the problem. There aren't easy answers. The physical health of the nation and the economic health of the nation are both critical factors. The 24 hour news tends to focus on what is important to them to simplify the situation. There is not a simple answer. There are trade-offs associated with every decision. For anyone to oversimplify the situation is doing a disservice to the population at large.

Just clacking on a keyboard.

:cheers: vic
 

autostaretx

Erratic Member
With quite a few restrictions (limiting number of booths and customers in the parking lot), Seattle has re-opened a couple of "farmers' markets" this weekend.
Customers can't handle the produce, the vendor picks it up and packages it for them.
(not unlike small grocery stores in Paris in normal times)
You can say: "no, not that one, the one on it's left".

Phone ahead and drive-by pickup is offered.

--dick (sur la gauche, por favor)((yeah, i frequently drop into Spanish when trying to speak French))
 

Bobnoxious

Deplorable and adorable.
I wouldn't disagree.

My information is that we need 60 - 70% of the population to become immune for Herd Immunity to kick in (not so many people spreading the disease). Assuming we can develop anti-bodies, that percentage range is achieved by enough people surviving infection, or an effective vaccine is administered to enough of the population.

The Catch 22 is that it takes longer to achieve Herd Immunity if people are distanced. The percentage of people needing immunity doesn't change. The time to achieve that percentage can extend. The numbers associated with the results of infection (those needing a hospital, those needing ICU, sometimes death) cannot be completely avoided. It becomes somewhat of a race to a vaccine. Can we effectively vaccinate a substantial number of the population sooner than achieving natural herd immunity? If a vaccine is 12 - 18 months in the future that race becomes more difficult to win. Is relaxing restrictions going to achieve Herd Immunity sooner? Will it result in fewer deaths overall? I don't know the answers.

Even if a Herd Immunity or a vaccine is totally effective, the disease will still be out there. Without effective treatments, the at risk people with comorbidity issues may still die if infected.

To me issues like those are the problem. There aren't easy answers. The physical health of the nation and the economic health of the nation are both critical factors. The 24 hour news tends to focus on what is important to them to simplify the situation. There is not a simple answer. There are trade-offs associated with every decision. For anyone to oversimplify the situation is doing a disservice to the population at large.

Just clacking on a keyboard.

:cheers: vic
Sounds really scary. I guess seclusion for the elderly and unhealthy the best approach for now. Dunno.
 

Aqua Puttana

Poly - Thread Finder
From the other Forum list.

It is really scary. I assume that this video is fairly accurate. It is sobering to say the least. I feel that it is worth the 7 minute investment of time to watch it.
It was posted April 15, 2020.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QXpbjzofb7Y

vic
 

Aqua Puttana

Poly - Thread Finder
...

I thought this may be helpful. Particularly the part about getting-up staying ambulatory.

...
It is helpful.

There's a bunch of 24 hour network news coverage about the positives and negatives of some States going back. As would be expected the different news networks have their own slant on the situations. I don't know what the best course for returning to a functioning economy is. On a positive note, opening too early will give data. At risk people can still self isolate.

I'm watching the African country Malawi. The population is generally poor. They have minimal medical infrastructure so flattening the curve does nothing for them. The government leaders have announced that there will be no extreme measures as to the Covid-19 disease. It is a very unfortunate situation. It will give an idea of what happens with an uncontrolled virus.

As a practical consideration it occurred to me that reaching the 60 - 70% Herd Immunity level is inevitable. Whether we get there by natural selection, or a vaccine, it will happen. I guess that the road we take to get there is the question. There is no easy road.

Casey Roman was a reporter and is a video producer on YouTube and for commercial businesses.. Her business is basically gone. She is now working to get her mortgage certification. She is no dummy and has some good insight.

This is a video that I found enlightening and may help to give another perspective to those able to isolate at home. I watched the entire vid. I suggest... encourage everyone to at least watch from 16:00 or so to 22:15
If you don't want to invest that time at least watch from 18:00 to 22:15. That is an eye opener.
From 39:30 to the end is also worthwhile.

News on the News: More Mass Graves, Drama Masks & Forbearance BS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4bl0U4P2f8

Another video in which as a former reporter she gives some perspective to the overall media coverage of events. It is enlightening.

CORONAVIRUS MEDIA SENSATIONALISM: As Told By A Reporter
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nvPNrIwmD-k

:2cents: vic
 

Overvand

'20 144" HR 4x4
I've read through this whole thread (well I skimmed over some of the non-sequitur hijacking), and correct me if I'm wrong, no one has addressed the factor of civil unrest if the lock-down continues. I have had the misfortune of being on the front lines at the Rodney King riots in LA, the aftermath of Katrina in New Orleans, and a Black Lives Matter incident in El Cajon California, and I foresee where this is going.

The current wave of demonstrations is a canary that a portion of people are getting a little more than frustrated. While today's protesters are peaceably assembling and demanding liberties be restored, they will not 'revolt' against the government per-se. It will be the indigent who reach a state of frenzied despair who will begin to riot against anyone/everyone. They are not going to show up with flags and posters, they will show up with rocks and Molotov cocktails.

It will take only a minor incident to spark something, and of course then be exacerbated by the media negligence to be fueled into a full conflagration.

The spark could be something as simple as the California Governor's careless public announcement yesterday basically insinuating the lock-down would continue for more than a year.
 

rollerbearing

Well-known member
Civil unrest is certainly a concern. We quickly began taking a few more precautions around keeping the front door locked, etc. Humans get stressed and they misbehave. Some just like to misbehave and will take advantage of a situation that allows them do so with relative impunity.

Beyond just the lockdown/stay at home stressors, the eventual unfolding of economic effects may trigger unrest further down the road. There may also be additional spikes of the virus forcing re-instatement of a lockdown order and that isn't going to be pretty. Things may also light up again November 6ish.
 

Aqua Puttana

Poly - Thread Finder
I've read through this whole thread (well I skimmed over some of the non-sequitur hijacking), and correct me if I'm wrong, no one has addressed the factor of civil unrest if the lock-down continues. I have had the misfortune of being on the front lines at the Rodney King riots in LA, the aftermath of Katrina in New Orleans, and a Black Lives Matter incident in El Cajon California, and I foresee where this is going.

The current wave of demonstrations is a canary that a portion of people are getting a little more than frustrated. While today's protesters are peaceably assembling and demanding liberties be restored, they will not 'revolt' against the government per-se. It will be the indigent who reach a state of frenzied despair who will begin to riot against anyone/everyone. They are not going to show up with flags and posters, they will show up with rocks and Molotov cocktails.

It will take only a minor incident to spark something, and of course then be exacerbated by the media negligence to be fueled into a full conflagration.

The spark could be something as simple as the California Governor's careless public announcement yesterday basically insinuating the lock-down would continue for more than a year.
Good observations/questions.

Politicians seem to love rhyming slogans.

I've got one for our NYS governor.

How long before NY Pause triggers fangs and claws?

It is a real concern.

vic
 

flman

Okay wait for it....... Red Herring cop out!
Civil unrest is certainly a concern. We quickly began taking a few more precautions around keeping the front door locked, etc. Humans get stressed and they misbehave. Some just like to misbehave and will take advantage of a situation that allows them do so with relative impunity.

Beyond just the lockdown/stay at home stressors, the eventual unfolding of economic effects may trigger unrest further down the road. There may also be additional spikes of the virus forcing re-instatement of a lockdown order and that isn't going to be pretty. Things may also light up again November 6ish.
Not worried about it, my gun is always locked and loaded.
 

Bobnoxious

Deplorable and adorable.
I've read through this whole thread (well I skimmed over some of the non-sequitur hijacking), and correct me if I'm wrong, no one has addressed the factor of civil unrest if the lock-down continues. I have had the misfortune of being on the front lines at the Rodney King riots in LA, the aftermath of Katrina in New Orleans, and a Black Lives Matter incident in El Cajon California, and I foresee where this is going.

The current wave of demonstrations is a canary that a portion of people are getting a little more than frustrated. While today's protesters are peaceably assembling and demanding liberties be restored, they will not 'revolt' against the government per-se. It will be the indigent who reach a state of frenzied despair who will begin to riot against anyone/everyone. They are not going to show up with flags and posters, they will show up with rocks and Molotov cocktails.

It will take only a minor incident to spark something, and of course then be exacerbated by the media negligence to be fueled into a full conflagration.

The spark could be something as simple as the California Governor's careless public announcement yesterday basically insinuating the lock-down would continue for more than a year.
Home invasion a big concern around here. Dogs...big dogs are good deterrent and alarm. MSM and liberal politicians demonizing Caucasians doesn't engender feelings of peace and tranquility.
 

elemental

Wherever you go, there you are.
So here is the latest infection chart from the state of Washington; we've been good doobies, we've followed the physical isolation protocols (from what I've observed many people have sort of followed them but also a lot of half-assed compliance) apparently well enough to significantly retard the spread of the virus (at least to people will get sick enough to get tested). If you assume a 14-day to resolution (death or recovery) period, then the number of active confirmed cases is very low through out the state. Death rate (next chart) is also very low. So... it will be interesting to see what the "leaders" propose we do about this state of affairs. What physical isolation protocols will be relaxed, what will be kept in place, and for how long... The governors have sought out the "safety in numbers" approach by saying that Washington/Oregon/California will act in lockstep; can't say I blame them.
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