Aqua Puttana
Poly - Thread Finder
Where will this experiment take us?
From another thread.
One couple expressed the concern that they have for Spring planting. Their window is basically between April and June. If they miss the window they are done. Nobody can legislate Mother Nature. Not Democrats, Republicans, Conservatives, Liberals... nobody.
The traditional method for getting Spring planting done on time has been to use migrant workers. Will migrant workers be at all available? Will the general public step up to help? Can the military be mobilized?
I don't have the answers. I have significant concerns.
vic
From another thread.
Part of the reason China was able to stop the spread, was that they isolated everyone who tested positive outside there homes (they had facilities/camps for them if they weren't in need of care). They also quarantined those who were exposed, immediate family, etc. Until they tested negative or the infectious period had passed.
Most countries can't stomach that kind of authoritarian action. Combined with the asymptomatic rates, this means control will be challenging.
It does appear that fatalities are starting to level off and current social distancing measures and workplace shutdowns are being at least partially effective, but I see no reason to believe that if/when the current restrictions are lifted that the infection rate will not simply start to increase again, until such time as there is a significant level of a population-wide immunity. Since any form of this (vaccine, herd immunity, etc.) is still 1-2 years away at best then one has to wonder why anyone believes that we will simply be able to start opening things back up at the end of the month. That will only last until things start to go south again, and I see no reason to believe (other than wishful thinking or ideology) that's not exactly what will happen.
What am I missing? Even if we are successful in flattening the curve with current measures, absent the development and deployment of an effective vaccine or development of herd immunity (again, both still a ways off, certainly not until the end of the year or next) then once we 'open the economy back up' then what can happen other than another infection peak, perhaps worst than the first?
There are people who don't get their kids vaccinated. Many are fine and never have any problems. Others are at the center of breakouts of diseases (like measles). As long as *most* people are taking precautions, then those who don't are less likely to encounter trouble, but not guaranteed.
My county does not have a high incidence of COVID-19, but had two COVID-19 deaths of well-liked individuals (older age range) who were members of a chorale group that held a rehearsal just prior to the local prohibitions on group socializing due to COVID-19. According to an article in the local paper, none of the members were experiencing any symptoms at the time of the rehearsal and they were all practicing good hygiene (as recommended at that point in time) with hand sanitizer, no handshaking, etc. because of an awareness of COVID-19. Approximately one week after the rehearsal, 24 or so of the group members had all developed symptoms and been positively diagnosed with COVID-19 (traced back to the rehearsal as the common infection point), with two older members subsequently dying.
With exponential phenomena, if you get the case load low enough, then spot treating and restrictions can keep the case load manageable. The issue is getting to that point, which required preemptive action (South Korea, Japan). Or much more stringent action (China, and hopefully italy/spain). If we successfully get ahead of the cases, we can loosen restrictions for a few months, then tighten them again. Repeat until immunity is reached by infection or vaccine. The theory is that the months long restrictions are better than a full blow outbreak. And the preemptive action with follow ups is less impactful than a full blown outbreak. Because the US (and others) were slow to act at the initial outbreak, we already had 1 million cases by the time we started restrictions. Which means it will take 30 days for those areas to get the case load under control, much longer for areas which aren't doing so. As we gain information we can tailor restrictions to find a reasonable balance. Hopefully china can provide useful examples as they move into the maintenance phase.
I saw a disturbing piece the other day about the Midwest farmers. Generally they don't have a bunch of trouble with social distancing. Working/living on a farm is a kinda automatic social distancing.This video isn't created by a medical professional.
It does include medical statistics discussing Sweden's present response to the virus.
That discussion begins around 17:09
[Video Here]
Personally I feel that the video is worth viewing from start to finish.
It has occurred to me that when looking back as to what really worked or didn't, the most meaningful overall statistics as to spread, the affects, and Covid-19 CFR Case Fatality Rate may come from the underdeveloped countries. In many cases in those countries, given their way of life and crowded conditions, they are not really able to effectively practice social distancing even if it was mandated.
Time will tell.
vic
One couple expressed the concern that they have for Spring planting. Their window is basically between April and June. If they miss the window they are done. Nobody can legislate Mother Nature. Not Democrats, Republicans, Conservatives, Liberals... nobody.
The traditional method for getting Spring planting done on time has been to use migrant workers. Will migrant workers be at all available? Will the general public step up to help? Can the military be mobilized?
I don't have the answers. I have significant concerns.

Last edited: