When to go back? What to go back to?

[Aqua Puttana]

Where will this experiment take us?

From another thread.

Part of the reason China was able to stop the spread, was that they isolated everyone who tested positive outside there homes (they had facilities/camps for them if they weren't in need of care). They also quarantined those who were exposed, immediate family, etc. Until they tested negative or the infectious period had passed.

Most countries can't stomach that kind of authoritarian action. Combined with the asymptomatic rates, this means control will be challenging.

It does appear that fatalities are starting to level off and current social distancing measures and workplace shutdowns are being at least partially effective, but I see no reason to believe that if/when the current restrictions are lifted that the infection rate will not simply start to increase again, until such time as there is a significant level of a population-wide immunity. Since any form of this (vaccine, herd immunity, etc.) is still 1-2 years away at best then one has to wonder why anyone believes that we will simply be able to start opening things back up at the end of the month. That will only last until things start to go south again, and I see no reason to believe (other than wishful thinking or ideology) that's not exactly what will happen.

What am I missing? Even if we are successful in flattening the curve with current measures, absent the development and deployment of an effective vaccine or development of herd immunity (again, both still a ways off, certainly not until the end of the year or next) then once we 'open the economy back up' then what can happen other than another infection peak, perhaps worst than the first?

There are people who don't get their kids vaccinated. Many are fine and never have any problems. Others are at the center of breakouts of diseases (like measles). As long as *most* people are taking precautions, then those who don't are less likely to encounter trouble, but not guaranteed.

My county does not have a high incidence of COVID-19, but had two COVID-19 deaths of well-liked individuals (older age range) who were members of a chorale group that held a rehearsal just prior to the local prohibitions on group socializing due to COVID-19. According to an article in the local paper, none of the members were experiencing any symptoms at the time of the rehearsal and they were all practicing good hygiene (as recommended at that point in time) with hand sanitizer, no handshaking, etc. because of an awareness of COVID-19. Approximately one week after the rehearsal, 24 or so of the group members had all developed symptoms and been positively diagnosed with COVID-19 (traced back to the rehearsal as the common infection point), with two older members subsequently dying.

With exponential phenomena, if you get the case load low enough, then spot treating and restrictions can keep the case load manageable. The issue is getting to that point, which required preemptive action (South Korea, Japan). Or much more stringent action (China, and hopefully italy/spain). If we successfully get ahead of the cases, we can loosen restrictions for a few months, then tighten them again. Repeat until immunity is reached by infection or vaccine. The theory is that the months long restrictions are better than a full blow outbreak. And the preemptive action with follow ups is less impactful than a full blown outbreak. Because the US (and others) were slow to act at the initial outbreak, we already had 1 million cases by the time we started restrictions. Which means it will take 30 days for those areas to get the case load under control, much longer for areas which aren't doing so. As we gain information we can tailor restrictions to find a reasonable balance. Hopefully china can provide useful examples as they move into the maintenance phase.

This video isn't created by a medical professional.


It does include medical statistics discussing Sweden's present response to the virus.

That discussion begins around 17:09

[Video Here]

Personally I feel that the video is worth viewing from start to finish.

It has occurred to me that when looking back as to what really worked or didn't, the most meaningful overall statistics as to spread, the affects, and Covid-19 CFR Case Fatality Rate may come from the underdeveloped countries. In many cases in those countries, given their way of life and crowded conditions, they are not really able to effectively practice social distancing even if it was mandated.

Time will tell.

vic

I saw a disturbing piece the other day about the Midwest farmers. Generally they don't have a bunch of trouble with social distancing. Working/living on a farm is a kinda automatic social distancing.

One couple expressed the concern that they have for Spring planting. Their window is basically between April and June. If they miss the window they are done. Nobody can legislate Mother Nature. Not Democrats, Republicans, Conservatives, Liberals... nobody.

The traditional method for getting Spring planting done on time has been to use migrant workers. Will migrant workers be at all available? Will the general public step up to help? Can the military be mobilized?

I don't have the answers. I have significant concerns.

vic

 

[edfrompa]

Vic: Your concerns are real. Re: spring planting, grain farming is machinery intensive and not labor dependent. in planting or harvest. FFV is a little more at planting and A LOT more at harvest and processing. Beef, pork and poultry are labor intensive in processing. Surprisingly, large scale dairy farms are increasingly being worked - not by the family or corporate owner- but by contract labor. When the dust settles on our current mess, perhaps it is time to re-think "corporate agriculture" vs real family farms and local production and distribution. Just my humble opinion, others may see it different.
Be safe//Ed

 

[rollerbearing]

I believe I also read the Vietnam is possibly stopping its rice export contracts and the former Soviet bread belt areas may not be exporting wheat this year.

We really do need some kind of immunity pass and possibly a 21st century version of the CCC. Maybe that would help create jobs for all the employees of all the businesses that may not re-open.

 

[autostaretx]

I believe I also read the Vietnam is possibly stopping its rice export contracts and the former Soviet bread belt areas may not be exporting wheat this year.

The situation is, shall we say "fluid".

Back on March 16th, the business headlines were:
Russia’s weekly grain exports jump, SovEcon ups March estimate
* Russia’s exports of wheat from ports up 30% from week earlier
* SovEcon may upgrade forecast for sunflower seeds exports
* Only 2-4% of Russia’s winter grains are in poor state
(source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/reu...-exports-jump-sovecon-ups-march-estimate.html )

Then, by April 2nd:
Russia Restricts Grain Exports Amid Pandemic
Russia on Thursday published a government decree establishing an export quota for certain grains until the end of June as its virus cases spiked.

The measures came after the heads of three global agencies including the World Trade Organization and the World Health Organisation on Wednesday warned countries against imposing export restrictions that could interrupt the food supply chain.

Russia's agriculture ministry had proposed the quota last month.

Russia is the world's top wheat exporter. In the agricultural year from 2018-2019, it exported more than 35 million tons of wheat and 43.3 million tons of all grains, RIA Novosti news agency reported.

Russia's restrictions, which came into force Wednesday, apply to wheat, maize, barley and rye as well as a mixture of grains called meslin, an official government website said.

Only 7 million tons of these can be exported, the government order said. This does not apply to seeds. Exports are still unlimited in a customs union Russia has set up with countries including Kazakhstan and Belarus.
(source: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/04/02/russia-restricts-grain-exports-amid-pandemic-a69852 )
other sources agree with those numbers.

The (now obsolete) USDA forecasts of Russia's exports are here: https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/russia-grain-and-feed-update-14
Their March 10th update is here: https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/grain-world-markets-and-trade
...and i assume there'll be another update in a few days.

--dick

 

[flman]

In another thread Dennis brought up that China has lost 21 million mobile users, you believe what China says?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOEU4DIuOh0

 

[ECU]

there was a comment somewhere. "So much for the Global Economy"
The Irish famine was caused by shipping out all their produce to England.
Stalin killed millions by starvation, shipping out all the grain they produced.
Over the years, I've heard of other type stories.
Hawaii cut down all their trees to exchange for a carriage for the the queen.
How about we start local with taxation. We would only pay local tax. The county would pay tax to the state. The state pays to the fed. Kind of like the sovereign citizen stuff that we are citizens of the state, not the federal government. This has problems in that if one county imposes high gas tax, people simply drive to the next county over to get fuel. Just a starting point for an idea.

 

[Aqua Puttana]

I noticed that the 1918 Influenza city essays included a link to a graph.

https://www.influenzaarchive.org/cities/index.html

We hear about "The Curve" lots now. The 1918 curves look somewhat familiar.







I have no idea how it may relate to our present situation.

From the Buffalo NY essay.

"That freedom did not last long. On October 10, acting on the strong recommendation of Health Commissioner Gram and under emergency authority granted him by the city council, Mayor Buck ordered closed all schools, churches, saloons, movie houses and theaters, pool halls, five-and-ten stores (quickly removed from the list after owners protested), ice cream parlors and soda shops, and barred all indoor gatherings and meetings of any sort effective at 5:00 am the next morning.4 Buffalo’s streetcar strike precluded the need for the ventilation or passenger restrictions used in other cities."
https://www.influenzaarchive.org/cities/index.html

There was some social distancing and business shutdowns in Buffalo 1918.

Added:
Just inserting some random months.





vic

 

[rollerbearing]

Been pondering how the country might go back to work. Really if you have been doing a good job of sheltering for more than two weeks all of those people are now mostly non-infectious. Maybe let half of them go back to work. Do it by address. Odd numbers go back. Ask that everyone else stay in place for two more weeks. Half on half off. Then send the even numbers out and have the odds return to shelter in place for two weeks. I'd think one cycle of that would REALLY stamp out the spread and allow 50% up and running for 1 month (4 weeks) and then 100% after that. Corral small outbreaks immediately.

 

[flman]

Been pondering how the country might go back to work. Really if you have been doing a good job of sheltering for two weeks all of those people are now mostly non-infectous. Maybe let half of them go back to work. Do it by address. Odd numbers go back. Ask that everyone else stay in place for two more weeks. Half on half off. Then send the even numbers out and have the odds go back and shelter in place for two weeks. I'd think one cycle of that would REALLY stamp out the spread and allow 50% up and running for 1 month and then 100% after that.

Any plan you have works for me, since I never was out of work.

 

[HarryN]

The part that is tricky is "how many infection cycles do you wait"?

If one person in a home is infected, acting as a carrier, and isolates with their family for 14 days, then the risk of infecting others in the family is high. It might take 2 - 3 cycles to completely prevent spread. (months)

My understanding is that isolation slows the spread in order to reduce the max patient load at hospitals at any given time, not necessarily reduce total cases. That might be wrong, but that is what I think I am hearing.

I am hopeful that the same factors that reduce spread of the flu during the summer months will also help with covid 19, but of course that is speculation, and this virus is a tough cookie.

If (the social spreading delays the spread sufficiently) + (summer helps kill it off) , then we might be ok until winter.

Two years from now, I am fairly confident that there will be treatments that will make the body largely immune to the virus, but short term it is a challenge.

I actually don't understand why there is so much emphasis on pushing people into their homes when they could be going to fairly large social distance places. It would not be very difficult to be 50 ft apart at a beach.

There are a few small business owners operating in the area doing critical work. Many of them are more isolated at their business than at home. (as in 1000 yards isolation).

Potentially we can look at the airline industry after 9-11 as a guide to how to re-start?

 

[ECU]

You're likely to transmit to others in the family in days.
I was exposed 3/3.
My wife showed worst symptoms 3/5 and was only one day.
I went full blown on 3/6. Lasted 5-6 days of fever. Trailing lung crud.
I isolated 14 days. Didn't go out for 18 days.

 

[rollerbearing]

Yes, I agree that re-isolation of the Odds will cause some cases of family/household infection. But this (reinfection) is bound to happen anyway. At least here you have a better idea where to look for it and it will be automatically confined. It also enforces social distancing automatically. Reducing exposure by 50%. And seems somewhat fair - in a head/tails kind of way. Anyone who does not want to leave isolation can remain isolated if they choose. Still pondering this out - but trying to think how to keep the "water" compartmentalized - better to have your water supply in several jugs vs one big tank that gets re-contaminated (analogy).

 

[HarryN]

Using the present to try to project a bit into the future (for my family)

Personal / consumer goods purchasing
- My wife does most of the grocery / consumer shopping

Target
- Already were increasingly using Target's phone application to have products shopped and in a cart - ready to load when she arrived.
- The only reason that this has declined now is due to shortages of people and products.
- She actually enjoys going into Target and other stores so it depends on how many hours she is working
- The local target's were already pretty clean and organized. Now they are super clean - like spotless.
- My perception is that we will continue to do a mix of these things, as before.

It is interesting to see people wearing masks everywhere. Not sure how long that will go on - might be a while.

Target and other similar big box stores are having to increase wages to attract workers. I suspect that this will carry into the future - potentially raising the effective minimum wage. I view this as a good thing.

Hardware
- The local Lowes and HD stores have had less and less of the things that I buy for a long time.
- I have been purchasing 90% of the hardware items on line for a while.
- Haven't been happy with wood at these stores either, so I have been buying at a commercial wood supply store.

Hopefully all of these places stay in business but my plan is to keep doing this.

Amazon
- I don't buy anything from amazon, but my wife buys few things.
- The number 1 thing has been canned cat food, but it seems like they all come in dented, even when in a case qty, so she is now buying from a different on-line store.

Storage
- We are from the midwest, so having enough food and supplies to go a few weeks (not months) through a winter are normal. The habit had largely stayed with us. Now we are doing it a bit more formally.
- No matter what you think that you have though, we were not in any way prepared for dealing with what might become 1- 2 months of this hunker down mode.

Adult children't jobs
- They seem reasonably stable at the moment, partly because the companies have shifted into covid mode.
- My son-in-law is a pediatrician. They have shifted many of their patient "visits" to on-line (as has mine). I expect this to continue, but honestly I don't go to the Dr all that often so when I do, I want to be poked a bit.

- I guess I need to break down and re-install a video conference package.

There are some interesting software compatibility challenges and frankly dealing with this right now is kind of annoying.

 

[HarryN]

Corner business type stores
- I have always purchased a few things from a small store nearby
- Interestingly, they have been able to obtain supplies and keep things on the shelf that the big box stores are out of.
- They are rationing some items, so it has been helpful to have been a customer there for a long time.

 

[davisdave]

Time will tell...

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-response-sweden-avoids-isolation-economic-ruin/

https://time.com/5817412/sweden-coronavirus/

 

[Aqua Puttana]

Time will tell...

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-response-sweden-avoids-isolation-economic-ruin/

https://time.com/5817412/sweden-coronavirus/

I agree. I'm very interested in what happens in Sweden and some of the densely populated under developed countries.

In my mind it's much too early to condemn Sweden.

"Sweden has a relatively high case fatality rate: as of April 8, 7.68% of the Swedes who have tested positive for COVID-19 have died of the virus. Neighboring countries, like Norway and Denmark, have case fatality rates of 1.46% and 3.85% respectively. (The U.S. case fatality rate is 3.21%.) While Sweden’s elevated case fatality rate could be a result of its low testing rates compared to its neighbors, experts say Sweden’s laissez-faire approach could also be to blame."

Nobody really knows yet, but those on the opposite side are quick to point things out which support their belief.

Germany's Case Fatality Rate CFR also appears high. Recently results were reported from a detailed study of an isolated small community using extensive testing. Preliminary findings show that there were many more people who tested positive for the corona virus than known prior to the study. Many had mild symptoms or were asymptomatic. A similar study is being conducted in Italy.

Significantly high undetected cases reduce the CFR. Sweden doesn't test much so that could be the case. Time will tell.

Once reliable antibody testing is widely implemented it could change the current CFR significantly.

Some recent virus history and data is discussed here FWIW.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXKpBeeUNMk

Added:
A report that I saw just today indicates that Japan is not as locked down as many medical professionals recommend. Japan may be another country to watch over the long term.

 

[LuckyDawgz Jim]

I did vet this before posting, and it is legit.

Simulation research shows COVID-19 can spread farther by those exercising outdoors.
https://www.fox13news.com/news/simulation-research-shows-covid-19-can-spread-farther-by-those-exercising-outdoors

 

[tinman]

Time will tell...

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-response-sweden-avoids-isolation-economic-ruin/

https://time.com/5817412/sweden-coronavirus/

What we "know" about various aspects of Covid-19 is very much a moving target, but general understanding of pandemics and epidemics is a bit better. As economically painful as it is, quarantine and social distancing are entirely reasonable steps to have taken given what was seen in the places of earliest spread. You can always back off if it's appropriate, economies will heal. Death, and maybe some of the long term health effects, not so much. Most of us posting here planned carefully by being born in relatively wealthy and not densely populated parts of the world. Even so, the experience of places like NYC and NO illustrate the possibilities. I think we need to take it slow and careful. I can't guess what that means on the calendar.

 

[Bobnoxious]

From the stand point of caution, this could very well be a diabolical Chinese commie plan, whipped up buy a commie controlled news media designed to tank the global economy, weaken America, turn all citizens against one another with the ultimate goal of driving Trump from office. Trump, the sole roadblock to Chinese Global Domination!!!

Additionally, anyone accepting China Communist Party's information as GOSPEL, is a blithering IDIOT!!!

 

[autostaretx]

Time will tell...
https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-response-sweden-avoids-isolation-economic-ruin/
https://time.com/5817412/sweden-coronavirus/

Quoting the National Review article:
"It turns out that, while you need proof beyond a reasonable doubt to convict a person of theft and throw them in jail, you don’t need any actual evidence (much less proof) to put millions of people into a highly invasive and burdensome lockdown with no end in sight and nothing to prevent the lockdown from being reimposed at the whim of public-health officials. Is this rational?"

Change "public health" to "politicians" and put something like "asylum-seekers" or "DACA children" in place of the word "people" and watch them reverse their argument.

--dick