Can I just say how much I love my van even more in times like this...

[Midwestdrifter]

Part of the reason China was able to stop the spread, was that they isolated everyone who tested positive outside there homes (they had facilities/camps for them if they weren't in need of care). They also quarantined those who were exposed, immediate family, etc. Until they tested negative or the infectious period had passed.

Most countries can't stomach that kind of authoritarian action. Combined with the asymptomatic rates, this means control will be challenging.

 

[smiller]

It does appear that fatalities are starting to level off and current social distancing measures and workplace shutdowns are being at least partially effective, but I see no reason to believe that if/when the current restrictions are lifted that the infection rate will not simply start to increase again, until such time as there is a significant level of a population-wide immunity. Since any form of this (vaccine, herd immunity, etc.) is still 1-2 years away at best then one has to wonder why anyone believes that we will simply be able to start opening things back up at the end of the month. That will only last until things start to go south again, and I see no reason to believe (other than wishful thinking or ideology) that's not exactly what will happen.

What am I missing? Even if we are successful in flattening the curve with current measures, absent the development and deployment of an effective vaccine or development of herd immunity (again, both still a ways off, certainly not until the end of the year or next) then once we 'open the economy back up' then what can happen other than another infection peak, perhaps worst than the first?

 

[elemental]

When we are consider "mild-risk" group being healthy but at higher age, we do notice friends and neighbours, who having age + health problems don't hesitate to go shopping every few days and contact other people on regural basis. They are educated people, so I just wonder what are they thinking? Playing Russian roulette with your life?

There are people who don't get their kids vaccinated. Many are fine and never have any problems. Others are at the center of breakouts of diseases (like measles). As long as *most* people are taking precautions, then those who don't are less likely to encounter trouble, but not guaranteed.

My county does not have a high incidence of COVID-19, but had two COVID-19 deaths of well-liked individuals (older age range) who were members of a chorale group that held a rehearsal just prior to the local prohibitions on group socializing due to COVID-19. According to an article in the local paper, none of the members were experiencing any symptoms at the time of the rehearsal and they were all practicing good hygiene (as recommended at that point in time) with hand sanitizer, no handshaking, etc. because of an awareness of COVID-19. Approximately one week after the rehearsal, 24 or so of the group members had all developed symptoms and been positively diagnosed with COVID-19 (traced back to the rehearsal as the common infection point), with two older members subsequently dying.

 

[Midwestdrifter]

With exponential phenomena, if you get the case load low enough, then spot treating and restrictions can keep the case load manageable. The issue is getting to that point, which required preemptive action (South Korea, Japan). Or much more stringent action (China, and hopefully italy/spain). If we successfully get ahead of the cases, we can loosen restrictions for a few months, then tighten them again. Repeat until immunity is reached by infection or vaccine. The theory is that the months long restrictions are better than a full blow outbreak. And the preemptive action with follow ups is less impactful than a full blown outbreak. Because the US (and others) were slow to act at the initial outbreak, we already had 1 million cases by the time we started restrictions. Which means it will take 30 days for those areas to get the case load under control, much longer for areas which aren't doing so. As we gain information we can tailor restrictions to find a reasonable balance. Hopefully china can provide useful examples as they move into the maintenance phase.

 

[smiller]

If we successfully get ahead of the cases, we can loosen restrictions for a few months, then tighten them again. Repeat until immunity is reached by infection or vaccine.

I'm just wondering about the political reality of a yo-yo strategy, at least in the US. It may be logical in an epidemiological sense but given the disjointed response thus far by government officials it seems doubtful that this would be possible. Even at this point there is still, incredibly, resistance to action in some quarters, and in any event the damage to the economy would be protracted and painful. We would need to implement a new kind of safety net for both individuals and businesses (unemployment programs designed to accommodate being on and off at frequent intervals, government compensation of businesses to prevent their collapse while trying to operate under that kind of scenario, etc.) that would represent a sea change in the way we look at the government's role. Not that it can't be done, but it's going to be a bumpy ride, not 'back to normal in a month or two' and I hope no one seriously believes that is what is going to happen.

.

 

[Midwestdrifter]

I'm just wondering about the political reality of a yo-yo strategy, at least in the US. It may be logical in an epidemiological sense but given the disjointed response thus far by government officials it seems doubtful that this would be possible. Even at this point there is still, incredibly, resistance to action in some quarters, and in any event the damage to the economy would be protracted and painful. We would need to implement a new kind of safety net for both individuals and businesses (unemployment programs designed to accommodate being on and off at frequent intervals, government compensation of businesses to prevent their collapse while trying to operate under that kind of scenario, etc.) that would represent a sea change in the way we look at the government's role. Not that it can't be done, but it's going to be a bumpy ride, not 'back to normal in a month or two' and I hope no one seriously believes that is what is going to happen.

.

Indeed, the best news we could hear is an effective treatment in the short term. Nothing currently on the horizon, and viral treatments are notoriously difficult (see AIDs and influenza).

But its not going to be easy. A concerted centralized government response is required. Such a response does not seem to be the message we are seeing from the executive branch though. We will start seeing the difference in the quality of state governments much more keenly as this progresses over the next 90 days. No city or county, rural or urban, will be spared.

 

[220629]

These interesting discussions aside...

The OP can still open with...
Can I just say how much I love my van even more in times like this...

vic

 

[sprint2freedom]

What am I missing? Even if we are successful [...] what can happen other than another infection peak, perhaps worst than the first?

Several reasons for optimism:

- If we were to isolate everyone long enough for all of the symptomatic cases to present themselves and run their course, when the restrictions are lifted only infectious-but-asymptomatic individuals would be left in the general population to seed future contagion. That's hopefully a much smaller number of people than were out spreading the virus before isolation was imposed, so what we're really doing is not just halting progress but actually moving ourselves further back in time on the exponential curve. It gives us a sort of "do-over" which we'll hopefully use to make better decisions this time.

- With international travel more or less at a standstill, imported cases should mostly cease. By far the greater threat to our economy is everything being shut down domestically, so it's unlikely that such travel would resume concurrently, giving us time to improve screening and other tools.

- The next time around people are going to be more aware of the scale of the problem and many of them will now be taking it seriously. Their collective caution should help to slow the rate of new infections even if we open everything back up.

 

[HarryN]

I love having my van conversion.

Not only to have an apartment on wheels wherever I go which has opened up new opportunities and travel, but in time like this having it available even for just day use.

Once or twice a week I still need to travel several hours from my house for "essential" work in support of recovery efforts then back home that night Having my own bathroom, mobile office, power, sink, fridge with food and beverages, disinfectant wipes, and supplies with me at all times...while still being able to take my dog as well...has been freakin awesome.

Thats all.

I completely agree with you on having a van set up like this.

Having an electrical system in it that can potentially keep your home refrigerator running during an outage is also very useful. No matter where a person lives, there are times when the grid just isn't available.