Maslin
I've worked on a few vans
If I pull the rear cover will I be able to see the part of the axle that gets the wear?
No, it's the other end. You would need to raise the wheel on that side and "lock" the inside of the axle still. Then turn the wheel to see if there is play.
This is a good axle (as far as play goes). The spline wear occurs at the hub end. Should be a press fit, these aren't coming apart without a press.

These are worn splines. When they're clunky the axle and hub will just fall apart. Eventually, the splines on the hub turn to dust and it's just a smooth bore.

