I reviewed this thread with one of the home builders that I work with, and he confirmed that every spray foam contractor he has ever worked with has insisted that spray foam does not shrink. If it did, it would open up gaps along the framing structure and defeat the vapor-barrier property of the foam. We have also seen spray foam in attics and other spaces that were installed years prior, with no evidence of shrinking.
We are thinking that the structural members of this van were not insulated with spray foam (maybe not at all?), which may have caused a temperature differential in the sheet metal skin. This theory is highly possible since spray foam in narrow spaces such as the framing members has a good probability for over-expansion and bulging of the vehicle skin, and therefore might have been avoided altogether by the spray foam contractor. While not knowing for certain without seeing the inside of the van walls, the condensation pattern on the exterior of the van in the first photo would suggest that the skin along the framing members is warmer than the open areas.
We are thinking that the structural members of this van were not insulated with spray foam (maybe not at all?), which may have caused a temperature differential in the sheet metal skin. This theory is highly possible since spray foam in narrow spaces such as the framing members has a good probability for over-expansion and bulging of the vehicle skin, and therefore might have been avoided altogether by the spray foam contractor. While not knowing for certain without seeing the inside of the van walls, the condensation pattern on the exterior of the van in the first photo would suggest that the skin along the framing members is warmer than the open areas.